Afghanistan, being situated in the vicinity of at least five nuclear powers in the region, has never faced a direct threat from the perspective of nuclear weapons as a strategic tool, as it does today from drone operations. Throughout the five decades of political crisis and war in Afghanistan, during which mostly nuclear powers beyond the region, especially the United States, have been involved, rival nuclear powers in the region have never resorted to nuclear weapons in rivalry with it. However, today, with the changing rules of the game and the emergence of proxy forces to secure the interests of the main players, which have been reduced to the level of groups and even individuals, the nature of competition and confrontation between governments has also changed using drones. This new war machine has even faded the essence of geography and national sovereignty.
Today, Afghanistan finds itself besieged by regional drone players. Geographically, China in the northeast of Afghanistan has not felt the need for the use of this tool and has only focused on its export. In the north, Uzbekistan, with the help of Russia and the importing drone technology from Turkey, is seeking to strengthen its military drone capabilities. Pakistan, amidst its economic troubles, has resorted to using drones left by American forces at Shamsi Airbase. In western neighborhood of Afghanistan, Iran has practically become a drone power, extending from the Middle East to Ukraine, Africa, and recently, to East Asia. In 2023, it activated a branch of its drone industry in Tajikistan. Tajikistan, for the first time, utilized this tool in border tensions with Kyrgyzstan, effectively tilting the border tensions in its favor.
“The question is, why states in the region are willing to grant financial and political concessions to the Taliban despite the security threats posed by these militant groups? They provide financial and political privileges to the Taliban, entrusting them with Afghan embassies and consulates, sending ambassadors and chargés d’affaires to Kabul, and even moving towards recognizing the Taliban government, contrary to the approach of the United States. Furthermore, despite having drones as a tool, they refrain from using them.”
The United States of America, as the producer of the most advanced type of drones, has been using this tool since the early years of the attack on Afghanistan in counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan and tribal regions of Pakistan. Even after the end of its political-military presence in Afghanistan, Washington remains the dominant drone player in Afghan airspace, with American drones controlling Afghanistan’s airspace day and night.
What has made Afghanistan vulnerable to drone attacks is the presence of terrorists and elements desired by these drone operators in Afghanistan. Although regional countries, except for Iran, had secured a relative guarantee of not allowing the use of Afghan soil by their opposing groups during America’s military presence (2001 – 2021) in Afghanistan , now, in the absence of a dominant global power and a responsible government for international peace and security in Afghanistan, each of these drone operators faced with extremist movements opposed to them under Taliban rule in Afghanistan, lacks any means other than drones to suppress them.
Since the early months of seizing power in Afghanistan, the Taliban contrary to the written assurances they provided to the United States in the Doha Agreement, have continuously verbally committed to neighboring countries that they will not allow their opposing elements to operate against their security and interests using Afghan soil. However, in response to Islamabad’s claim regarding the Pakistani Taliban use of Afghan soil to carry out attacks in that country, they have shrugged off the accusation and stated that their commitment in the “Doha Peace Agreement” was only to provide assurances to the United States, nothing more. Recent attacks in Iran, rooted in new infiltrators from outside the country, have highlighted the free movement of extremist the region.
Afghanistan’s vulnerability to missile and drone attacks
Countries with weak national governance, internal political instability, and governments that have experienced internal military turmoil over the past 20 years have become arenas for drone and missile competitions among conflicting states in the region. The primary justification for the involvement of parties in these conflicts is based on the violation of national sovereignty of governments and the existence of elements disrupting the security of drone owners within territory of these governments.
From Israel’s missile attacks using drones on Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen to Iran’s drone strikes on Syria, Iraq, and even Pakistan, there are instances where drone owners have violated the sovereignty of their neighbors and resorted to military action against them in contravention of all international principles. In the wave of continuing drone competitions, Afghanistan is not safe either, and the United States of America persistently, on the Jully, 31, 2022 targeted Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of the Al-Qaeda network in Kabul using a drone, indicating to the Taliban that despite the end of its military presence in Afghanistan, Washington reserves the right to target threats to its national security in the heart of Taliban power.
What has made Afghanistan vulnerable to drone competitions in the region is the absence of a legitimate government and responsible state regarding international security and peace, as well as the lack of will or military-intelligence capabilities of the Taliban to control foreign militant and terrorist groups aligned with them in the twenty-year war against the international coalition and the change in the objectives of the Taliban and foreign militant groups that have fought over the past twenty years to end the US military presence in Afghanistan. Now they are busy planning to create instability in their own countries.
The presence of extremist and militant groups in Afghanistan
It seems that the Taliban ideology has been the most convenient and enduring sanctuary for extremist and terrorist groups in the world and the region. The 09/11 attacks and the United States’ October 7, 2001, attack on Afghanistan, which overturned the Taliban regime and targeted individuals and leaders of Al-Qaeda, did not serve as a deterrent lesson to the Taliban. A recent report from the United Nations Security Council indicates that the Al-Qaeda network currently operates four training centers in Ghazni, Logar, Paktia, and Uruzgan provinces. It has weapon depots in Panjshir province and facilities in Kabul, Helmand, and Herat. Moreover, established religious schools in Nangarhar, Nuristan, Kunar, and Paktia provinces which are likely to become military-terrorist training centers in the future, but Taliban government has referred to this report as “propaganda against the Taliban government and hostility” and has rejected it.
Despite the targeting of the Al-Qaeda network leader in capital Kabul,Taliban government claims that they have separated their path from this network. However, they never speak explicitly about cutting ties with regional extremist groups that have fought against the global coalition led by the United States for twenty years. They do not commit to regional or neighboring countries either.
“The drone strike by Iran-affiliated groups in the Middle East on the strategic military base of American forces in Jordan has diminished fear in the eyes of drone operators, revealing that even with the existence of American drones, they may have the chance for free movement of drones.”
Tahrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), China’s Uighurs East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Kyrgyz citizens who have joined ISIS in Middle East and opened their way to Afghanistan, members of the Sunni militant group Jundullah opposing the Iranian regime, Tajikistani Taliban Movement led by Mehdi Arsalan, also known as Muhammad Sharipov, are among the twenty opposing militant groups of neighboring countries have sanctuaries in Afghanistan under the Taliban government, according to the United Nations findings, but apart from military formations, they have no role in the Taliban government and do not benefit financially from revenue sources such as taxes, mining, and customs duties that the Taliban government owns. These groups have missionary aspirations and prepare for military operations in their countries.
The question is, why states in the region are willing to grant financial and political concessions to the Taliban despite the security threats posed by these militant groups? They provide financial and political privileges to the Taliban, entrusting them with Afghan embassies and consulates, sending ambassadors and chargés d’affaires to Kabul, and even moving towards recognizing the Taliban government, contrary to the approach of the United States. Furthermore, despite having drones as a tool, they refrain from using them.
Since August 31, 2021, there have been fewer days where the sky of Kabul has not witnessed American drone surveillance. These drones have also been observed over the northern and western provinces of Afghanistan. However, what the Taliban may not realize is from which country of the region these drones fly and controls. The message conveyed by the presence of the United States in Afghan airspace to regional countries, especially to drone operators, is that Washington still maintains control over Afghan airspace. Thus, they should not dare to approach it.
However, the evolving nature of drone operations in the region challenges America’s advantage and emboldens drone operators to reconsider their strategies. If the Taliban do not commit to the political motivations these countries give to them and neutralize their opposing factions, drone operators may contemplate the option of using drones. This is because the drone strike by Iran-affiliated groups in the Middle East on the strategic military base of American forces in Jordan has diminished fear in the eyes of drone operators, revealing that even with the existence of American drones, they may have the chance for free movement of drones.